INDIA BEWARE- Osama's killing is a dangling carrot which comes with a stick

First let me start off with congratulating the American President Mr. Barack "yes we can" Obama for hunting down and killing the most wanted terrorist of the world. The fight for Osama Bin Laden, started by Ex-President Bush, has now achieved a significant milestone with the elimination of dreaded Al-Qaeda head who was the motivating and guiding force for the Islamic terrorist all through the world. Though this war against terror is no where near its closure, but yet, it is a defining and iconic milestone that will continue to motivate all nations affected by terrorism not to loose their faith and keep fighting against it.  Though this achievement has come after nine and half years of the devastating 9/11 attack but I wish and pray that kith and kins of the victims of that terror attack get some relief with this news. 

World over, every nation, it's political establishment and citizens are rejoicing the news of Osama's killing and so is the case with India. While our Home Minster Mr. Chidambaram was quick to make a point that killing of Osama deep inside Pakistan proves that the country provides safe haven to the terrorists but I am not too sure that they have pondered over the timing of the killing and the way this operation was conducted. 

And India in particular should take this news with a pinch of salt, because there seems to be a major under hand deal between Pakistan and United States of America. After all, the timing of this event is suspicious and can be a result of few moves made by both India and Pakistan coupled with the internal situation in US. 

 Why do I doubt that the killing of Osama Bin Laden has been perfectly timed by US and Pakistan and that both sides have their private agenda in mind even though Osama's death is welcome news for everybody in world?

Here are my reasons, derived and inferred purely based on the recent events.  

1. The elections in America are approaching and Mr. Obama's popularity is nowhere near what it used to be when he was elected a president. Heck, he couldn't even pull off the USD 12 billion Indian Fighter Jet deal after all that big diplomatic push. This would have been a big positive on his resume, more so when US economy is still in doldrums. He needed something big to reflect during his 5 years term in office.
2. India rejected the bids of American firms Lockheed Martin & Boeing for the USD 12 billion MMRCA that IAF is buying. The deal would have helped USA economically but it shouldn't be such a big deal considering India has handed over defence deal worth many a billions and USA would be a major beneficiary of India’s future defence buys too. But a major defence buy like a fighter jet which is a major force in any country's defence has its own geopolitical and strategic implications. 
3. India by rejecting the US bid made it clear that it is not happy with same F-16's being supplied to Pakistan in spite of India's concern and also that India still remains wary of America's commitment to supply India with top of line technological products. And it should raise an eyebrow that "Operation Osama" was undertaken within a week of India's rejection of US bids for the fighter jets.
4. Now USA has already scheduled the withdrawal of their armed forces from Afghanistan in early July 2011. The date is getting nearer without the US armed forces achieving anything significant. This might have pushed the Americans to plan something big. 
5. Also, this could never be a possibility that Osama is living close to Islamabad and Pakistani officials never got a sniff of it. Pakistan has bargained big time with US to do away with Osama as Pakistan's own economy is in a sad state and to run the country they need IMF aid which cannot be done without US help.
6. The recent Raymond Davis episode affected the US-Pakistan relationship adversely and Pakistan could have seen this a opportune moment to make amends and improve relationship with US.
7. Pakistan also lobbied against US by meeting Afghan president Hamid Karzai and tried to tilt the country towards China to wane away the Indian and the US influence in the region. This must have sounded warning bell in the US as China's growing influence is among America's major worry.
8. And finally, this operation could not have been carried out without Pakistani involvement. How will Pakistan explain that why all their radars were jammed at the time of operation? And till now, we have heard only ex-President of Pakistan Mr. Musharraf crying hoarse about the breach of Pakistani Sovereignty, but does it matter considering that Mr. Musharraf is himself living in exile in UK?

What could be the implications for India?  

While Osama's killing is indeed a welcome news, but India should be wary of the timing of this event and also be mindful of the intention and agenda's of both Pakistan and USA. While Pakistan is working to gain more foothold in the Afghan region by cutting the Indian influence and at the same time it needs America's help to get IMF aid to keep its country running. 

US on the other hand want to show something concrete on their report card which is aimed at the next election and offcourse their scheduled withdrawal from Afghanistan. US will be more than happy to please Pakistan till the time they can abandon Afghanistan without much loss of face and people.

 I wish my concerns were false, but I also wish that Indian political establishment is able to foresee the future and act accordingly to safeguard its interest in Afghanistan. 

As far as Pakistan providing a safe sanctuary to terrorist is concerned, I do hope that Indian government show their guts to the Americans and destroy all terrorist camps in PoK, which we hoped would have happened after the 26/11 aftermath. 

But then our humble Prime Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh is busy building bridges with Pakistan and still hopes to connect with his roots there. Only if Mr. Manmohan Singh had other things on priority than improving relations with Pakistan.