Self Expression: 2011

Monday, June 20, 2011

C. Manish's photostream

C. Manish's photostream on Flickr.

Guys, here's the pic on Flickr taken by my HTC Wildfire Camera.
Decent for a phone camera.

Monday, May 2, 2011

INDIA BEWARE- Osama's killing is a dangling carrot which comes with a stick

First let me start off with congratulating the American President Mr. Barack "yes we can" Obama for hunting down and killing the most wanted terrorist of the world. The fight for Osama Bin Laden, started by Ex-President Bush, has now achieved a significant milestone with the elimination of dreaded Al-Qaeda head who was the motivating and guiding force for the Islamic terrorist all through the world. Though this war against terror is no where near its closure, but yet, it is a defining and iconic milestone that will continue to motivate all nations affected by terrorism not to loose their faith and keep fighting against it. Though this achievement has come after nine and half years of the devastating 9/11 attack but I wish and pray that kith and kins of the victims of that terror attack get some relief with this news.

World over, every nation, it's political establishment and citizens are rejoicing the news of Osama's killing and so is the case with India. While our Home Minster Mr. Chidambaram was quick to make a point that killing of Osama deep inside Pakistan proves that the country provides safe haven to the terrorists but I am not too sure that they have pondered over the timing of the killing and the way this operation was conducted.

And India in particular should take this news with a pinch of salt, because there seems to be a major under hand deal between Pakistan and United States of America. After all, the timing of this event is suspicious and can be a result of few moves made by both India and Pakistan coupled with the internal situation in US.

Why do I doubt that the killing of Osama Bin Laden has been perfectly timed by US and Pakistan and that both sides have their private agenda in mind even though Osama's death is welcome news for everybody in world?

Here are my reasons, derived and inferred purely based on the recent events.

The elections in America are approaching and Mr. Obama's popularity is nowhere near what it used to be when he was elected a president. Heck, he couldn't even pull off the USD 12 billion Indian Fighter Jet deal after all that big diplomatic push. This would have been a big positive on his resume, more so when US economy is still in doldrums. He needed something big to reflect during his 5 years term in office.
India rejected the bids of American firms Lockheed Martin & Boeing for the USD 12 billion MMRCA that IAF is buying. The deal would have helped USA economically but it shouldn't be such a big deal considering India has handed over defence deal worth many a billions and USA would be a major beneficiary of India’s future defence buys too. But a major defence buy like a fighter jet which is a major force in any country's defence has its own geopolitical and strategic implications.
India by rejecting the US bid made it clear that it is not happy with same F-16's being supplied to Pakistan in spite of India's concern and also that India still remains wary of America's commitment to supply India with top of line technological products. And it should raise an eyebrow that "Operation Osama" was undertaken within a week of India's rejection of US bids for the fighter jets.
Now USA has already scheduled the withdrawal of their armed forces from Afghanistan in early July 2011. The date is getting nearer without the US armed forces achieving anything significant. This might have pushed the Americans to plan something big.
Also, this could never be a possibility that Osama is living close to Islamabad and Pakistani officials never got a sniff of it. Pakistan has bargained big time with US to do away with Osama as Pakistan's own economy is in a sad state and to run the country they need IMF aid which cannot be done without US help.
The recent Raymond Davis episode affected the US-Pakistan relationship adversely and Pakistan could have seen this a opportune moment to make amends and improve relationship with US.
Pakistan also lobbied against US by meeting Afghan president Hamid Karzai and tried to tilt the country towards China to wane away the Indian and the US influence in the region. This must have sounded warning bell in the US as China's growing influence is among America's major worry.
And finally, this operation could not have been carried out without Pakistani involvement. How will Pakistan explain that why all their radars were jammed at the time of operation? And till now, we have heard only ex-President of Pakistan Mr. Musharraf crying hoarse about the breach of Pakistani Sovereignty, but does it matter considering that Mr. Musharraf is himself living in exile in UK?

What could be the implications for India?

While Osama's killing is indeed a welcome news, but India should be wary of the timing of this event and also be mindful of the intention and agenda's of both Pakistan and USA. While Pakistan is working to gain more foothold in the Afghan region by cutting the Indian influence and at the same time it needs America's help to get IMF aid to keep its country running.

US on the other hand want to show something concrete on their report card which is aimed at the next election and offcourse their scheduled withdrawal from Afghanistan. US will be more than happy to please Pakistan till the time they can abandon Afghanistan without much loss of face and people.

I wish my concerns were false, but I also wish that Indian political establishment is able to foresee the future and act accordingly to safeguard its interest in Afghanistan.

As far as Pakistan providing a safe sanctuary to terrorist is concerned, I do hope that Indian government show their guts to the Americans and destroy all terrorist camps in PoK, which we hoped would have happened after the 26/11 aftermath.

But then our humble Prime Minister Mr. Manmohan Singh is busy building bridges with Pakistan and still hopes to connect with his roots there. Only if Mr. Manmohan Singh had other things on priority than improving relations with Pakistan.

Friday, April 29, 2011

KICKING AMERICA’S BU** , THE INDIAN WAY

This would be a proud moment for all the Indians for India has finally woken up from the slumber and has decided to assert its sovereignty and economic prowess in the global arena. But then, we have not forgotten our Indian values to be courteous and kind to anybody who shows at our doorsteps for alms.

The news that India has rejected the bid for Multi-Medium Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) of US firms, Lockheed Martin and Boeing somehow sounded like music to my ears. Why?

Because as history would tell, combined with our experiences that US as a strategic ally cannot be trusted completely. One could argue that they bent backwards to get us N-deal, but then that my friend was completely a business proposition. Everybody knew what economic crisis US was going through at that time. The Nuclear deal would have opened a big market for the US nuclear firms who were suffering in the economic crisis.

The Americans are mighty disappointed by this rejection, and they can argue that all their relationship building exercise with India was a waste but then what did they achieve in Iraq, Afghanistan and now in Pakistan, which literally lives out of American aids and in turn gives them nothing.

Everybody knows that America is going through a rough phase economically and this USD 12 billion deal with MMRCA would have greatly helped their country in creating new jobs. Read this:

“The United States hopes it can sell Boeing Co's C17 transport aircraft to India for an estimated $4 billion, its ambassador to New Delhi said on Friday, a day after India rejected U.S. bids for a huge fighter jet deal.

"Once this over four billion dollar sale is finalized, the economic impact will be felt by 30,000 American workers and 650 American suppliers located in 44 states," Timothy Roemer said in a speech to an industry body, according to a statement issued by the embassy.”.

If a USD 4 billion deal can make such an impact then as a thumb rule a USD 12 billion deal would have thrice as much the impact. The milk, of which the US Government wished to skim the cream, is now spoilt for them. No wonder they are disappointed.

As far as I have read, the selection of Euro fighter Typhoon and Dassault Rafale fighters has been truly on the merit basis, based on technical evaluations without giving consideration to price of the fighters and the geopolitical and strategic considerations. For record, Economic Times reported that Dassault Rafale would cost above USD 85 million and Euro fighter would cost above USD 125 million each. Also this would be worth mentioning that if India chooses to buy Dassault Rafale fighters then India would end up bailing out the Company which has not sold even a single fighter jet in a long time.

All is not lost yet for the Americans, there are another USD 50 billion worth defense deals in the pipeline in next few years where US can participate. But India, by means of this rejection of the US firm, has sent a clear message that sub-standard frontline defense equipments with stripped off technology are not at all welcome. Though India is willing to take support military equipment like transport aircrafts and helicopters from US, as far as I have read even these are stripped off technologies for the price that is paid for them.

But even, some of these deals also does not materialize, I don’t think US can afford not to have India by its side considering the economic and geopolitical clout that India exercise in South- East Asia and also a key hedge against China.

But then we have clearly told the Americans, that you will not be allowed any further to take our money and then, use that to arm Pakistan with F-16s. And I feel, we have hit them where it hurts them the most without being rude.

That’s new India for you, asserting our new found power with a traditional touch.

Some links for your reading: